Monday, May 18, 2009

Rally Will Eventually Run Out Of Ground - And Comsumers Still Won't Be Spending.




The infamous "green shoots" may end up "bamboo shoots" if the consumer is fed up with the Fed, and the flowers of unrealized gains that the rally is sending may end up dead and dry on arrival before the end of the year.
The Dow and S&P came back, the S&P may be tracing out a Backtest of 915. Moreover, breadth was down and down volume trumped up volume. A strong close above 915 sets up a move for another test of the key 930 level.
All in all, a roller-coaster, with the indices whipping up and down across the breakeven point several times. Will positive words from Captain Greenspan that the financial markets should continue to improve and that housing may have bottomed prove once again that the emperor has no clothes?
The U.S. government can attempt to stimulate all they want, but they cannot control the consumer - who may continue to cut back and against their expectations, heaven forbid, save.

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