Sunday, October 21, 2007

Quantum physics for money,...Huhh ?


Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle : In quantum physics, the outcome of even an ideal measurement of a system is not deterministic, but instead is characterized by a probability distribution, and the larger the associated standard deviation is, the more "uncertain" we might say that that characteristic is for the system.
Or in English : It is impossible to have a particle that has an arbitrarily well-defined position and momentum simultaneously.
Applying that to money: By observing or attempting to observe money you alter where it is and/or the velocity at which it is traveling depending on whether or not you are watching with one eye or two. One can either determine how much money there is, where it is at, or the velocity and direction at which it is moving but not all of them at the same time!
This is complicated by the fact that watching is an aggregate thing, not an individual thing. Where money is and how fast it is traveling is influenced by everyone's attempt to watch it.
Too many people are watching Bernanke's helicopter drop right now which explains why money turns up in mysterious places like the pockets of those working for Goldman Sachs rather than blowing in the breezes or floating around in thin air as logic would dictate.
Bernanke, being the hero that he is, has tried hard to defeat this travesty of justice by eliminating M3 reporting but so far it does not seem to be working. There are simply too many people still watching M3 that money does not flow to those who desperately need it.

Rhythms del mundo.

Rhythms del Mundo is a nonprofit collaborative album, which fuses an all-star cast of Cuban musicians including Ibrahim Ferrer and Omara Portuondo of the the Buena Vista Social Club with tracks from US, UK and Irish artists such as U2, Coldplay, Sting, Jack Johnson, Maroon 5, Arctic Monkeys, Franz Ferdinand, Kaiser Chiefs and others.
The project was sparked off by the devastating 2004 India Ocean Tsunami. The idea came in to do a project with The Buena Vista Social Club to fuse their Latin sounds with Western artists and their familiar popular songs. The project evolved when more environmental disasters struck -- the Asian Earthquakes and Hurricane Katrina. But the big picture was climate change. You can call these natural disasters but after all the research and scientific data, we know that we're at least partly to blame for some of these disasters. Global warming is now in the news daily. If we don't act in the time frame our experts give us, our grandchildren will curse us eternally.
The main recording sessions took place in Havana at Abdala Studios from April 2005 to June 2006 and Mixed at Lazy Moon Studios (UK). While the majority of the vocals remain the same, the musicians of the Buena Vista Social Club reworked the original orchestration from each song and created something utterly unique, casting their trademark mastery over each track. "Rhythms Del Mundo" includes restructured tracks such as "Clocks" by Coldplay, "Better Together" by Jack Johnson, "She Will be Loved" by Maroon 5, "High and Dry" by Radiohead and "Dancing Shoes" by Arctic Monkeys and Modern Way by the Kaiser Chiefs and other popular songs.
"Rhythms Del Mundo" also includes music by famed Cuban singers Omara Portuondo and the last vocal recording of Afro-Cuban bolero singer, Ibrahim Ferrer, who passed away in 2005. The other Cuban musicians from The Buena Vista Social Club who perform on this album are as follows: Barbarito Torres, Amandito Valdes, Virgilio Valdes, Angel Terri Domech, Manuel 'Guajiro' Mirabal, Orlando Lopez 'Cachaito' and Demetrio Muniz. This project is the brainchild and concept of Kenny Young and the Berman Brothers. They produced the 16 new original recordings on the CD.
Wow!! simplemente incrible !! Que viva cuba !

Saturday, October 20, 2007

Wat about the Malaysian market?



I just wish, maybe one day, just one day..., I could play with the other kids outside...!

Lets take a moment for a pause of reflection.


And so here we are..., October 19th, a day of lore for historians galore. Indeed, talk about large moves of late and the conversation will likely focus on the upside. It’s human nature to discuss rewards after large rallies and risk management when losses mount. That’s the root driver of momentum investing and the self-fulfilling nature of the beast. The only difference between mistakes and lessons is the ability to learn from them. It is in that vein that we’ve paid homage to the crash with first person perspective.

Alan Greenspan, widely perceived to be finest Fed chair in history, weighed in to say that he was completely blindsided on that fateful day. Despite being the first line of defense, he simply didn’t see the supply mounting in the distance. Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke, after poetically waxing for months that sub-prime was “contained,” quickly realized that it wasn’t. And when those thoughts crystallized, they unleashed the proverbial hounds.

We can talk about the tangible costs to investors, as measured by a 5.5% drop in the dollar since August. We can noodle the intangible ramifications of their credibility or the waning patience of foreign holders of dollar-denominated assets. We can discuss all of these things until we’re blue in the face but the simple fact is that everything is funny while you’re making money. Even if the currency itself is slowly fading away.

I’ve always said that, as a trader, I’m not as concerned with our destination as I am with the path taken to get there. I must admit, however, that I am increasingly concerned with our collective destination. If not for my sake, than for my unborn children and their children. Indeed, for many people in the U.S. and throughout the world, the recession is already in full swing.

I often ask myself if my concerns are unfounded and if I’m completely off-base with regard to the percolating pressures. I hope I am, but I fear I’m not. More likely, the structural imbalances are cumulative, which is to say that the longer we push out the cyclical ebb and flow of the business cycle, the harsher the other side of that trade will be.

Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson are no dummies. They understand that in a finance-based, debt dependent economy, we’ve already passed the point of no return. That’s why they shifted the rules at the discount window and jump-started “The Working Group for Financial Markets.” They know the stakes and they’re fighting for their livelihoods and legacies.

On this, the 20th Anniversary of the Crash, please take a moment for a pause of reflection. The day of reckoning may not be at hand but there is risk in pretending that it doesn’t exist!

For if we’ve learned anything in the markets and in life, it’s that those who ignore history are destined to repeat it.
Melodies of love.mp3.http://www.delmonticossalon.com/media/Joe_Sample_-_Melodies_Of_Love.mp3

Friday, October 19, 2007

She's got legs..!


On Wednesday, the S&P tagged my 1525ish projection off the break of the 1550 neckline based on an hourly S&P Head & Shoulders Pattern.

The S&P shows five hourly waves down to 1525 / 1526. This suggests an impulsive downside action. Will the index reverse lower after a 1-2-3 hourly bounce?

Off 50 points from the 1576 square and down five of the last six sessions, the index bounced back from the red on Wednesday after the release of the Fed’s Beige Book showed the economy is decelerating. So, of course, let’s buy stocks. Why? Because, our friend Ben is in his turret. Wednesday’s late recovery saw the index recapture 1536 marginally, which as you recall is ninety degrees down from the 1576 high.

However, unless the 1550 level, which is 50% of the recent swing, is recaptured any rally attempt on the S&P is suspect – despite the dance of the momentum dragons.
Legs.mp3.http://www.fugly.com/staph/otis/ZZTop_Legs.mp3

Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Walls around China.



Cubic Oct 17, 2007.

The Chinese economy reminds me of the movie "Speed" (the flick that arguably sent Keanu Reeves to star status). In the movie, a bad guy with a grudge (masterfully played by Dennis Hopper) rigs a transit bus with multiple explosives, one of which will be triggered if the bus goes slower than 50 miles per hour.

How does that apply to China? The Chinese economy is akin to a bus with 1.2 billion people on-board, with massive financial and operation leverage as the explosives that will likely blow up if economic growth falls below its current pace. Even a small speed bump is likely to send this monstrous economy into a severe recession. Here is why: Chinese economic growth is largely driven by the manufacturing sector– industrial production growing at the double rate of GDP supports this argument. China has become a de facto manufacturer for the world. With the exception of food products, it is very difficult to find a product that is not, at least in part, manufactured in China.

The manufacturing industry is very capital intensive. To build a factory a large upfront investment is required (with commodity costs on the rise, the required investment has increased over the years) and once it is built there is a fixed cost associated with running a factory that is somewhat independent of utilization level– a classical definition of operational leverage.

Debt is the instrument of choice to finance ever-growing factories in China. A June 20, 2005 Financial Times article highlights the point: "In the first quarter of this year Chinese businesses relied on banks for 99% percent of their official fundraising, the highest rate in at least decade… The lack of fundraising alternatives means that many private companies – the motors of growth in the modern Chinese economy – borrow money from start-up finance 'underground’ banks that charge high interest rates.”

Debt (financial leverage) coupled with high fixed costs (operational leverage) create total operational leverage. Total operational leverage in China is elevated further as factories are built to accommodate a future demand, which has been rising in the past and thus automatically projected to climb in the future. This highly-leveraged growth formula works fine as long as the economy is growing at super-fast rates. As sales are growing, costs are not growing as fast as they are largely fixed (due to operational leverage) leading to expansion of operating margins (the beauty of leverage). Unfortunately, leverage works both ways: as sales growth slows down the opposite takes place.

The airline industry in the U.S. is the poster-child for a high degree of total leverage, as planes cost over a hundred million dollars and most of the time are financed with debt (yes, leases are just another off-balance sheet form of debt). Add to that a very unionized, overpaid, difficult-to-lay-off labor force and the deep cyclicality of the industry and you have a recipe for disaster. That's a fair description of the airline industry.

Chinese labor is arguably not as grossly over-compensated as United Airline’s flight attendants or pilots, but laying off workers in China is a politically sensitive process (according to FT), thus creating another layer of fixed costs.

I can think of many reasons that could cause the fatal slow down in Chinese economic growth:-

*Slow down of the U.S. economy, the world's biggest trading "partner" with China: China is financing its biggest customer – the U.S. consumer, not unlike Lucent while it was inducing its sales growth by financing its dot.com customers. China is financing U.S. consumers by buying U.S. Treasuries as if they were going out of style (pushing prices higher), thus keeping the U.S. interest rates at very low levels and creating what Mr. Greenspan calls a "conundrum". At some point, either because of the higher interest rates or simply due to debt overdose, U.S. consumer spending will become tempered, lowering demand for Chinese-produced goods.

*A mounting pile of politically-motivated bad loans may bring the Chinese banking system to a halt:
Though China is trying to move closer to Western lending practices, a combination of semi-market economy and government-controlled banks is very dangerous. Loans are often made not on the merit of investment, but based on political connection.

*Overcapacity:
It is a human tendency to draw straight lines and direct projections from the past into the future. During the fast-growth times the angle of the straight lines is usually tilted upward, causing over-investment in fixed assets as inability to keep up with demand may cause manufacturers to lose valuable customers. In the height of the dot.com mania, telecom equipment companies often could not keep up with ever-rising demand, and constantly increased capacity. Overcapacity is a death sentence in the manufacturing (fixed costs) world since it leads to price wars – a fatal deflation.

*Currency float:
There is a good reason why the Chinese don't want the renminbi to float (appreciate). As it chipped away some of the comparatively low-cost producer advantage, it would likely reduce the U.S. demand for Chinese products. In addition, renminbi appreciation would devalue the Chinese stock pile of U.S. Treasuries.

Most companies stress their China strategy on their conference calls, in the same way companies stressed their Internet strategies in the late 90s. I don't foresee companies re-naming themselves to incorporate China into their names, however, as many did with dot.com in the late stages of the Internet bubble. It is very apparent that many are making large investments in China– Bank of America's $3 bln investment into the Chinese bank comes to mind here. As usually happens after a bubble pops, the past asset turns into today's liability. Thus, Chinese exposure that is looked upon as a source of revenue growth today may turn into a written-off investment tomorrow.

I believe it is not a question of "if", but more of a question of "when" the Chinese economy will cross that metaphorical 50 miles per hour mark and fall into the deep abyss of prolonged recession. China is living through one of the world's greatest historical bubbles. Dozens of books will likely be written to describe how it happened and how it imploded, but as always, they'll be written after the fact. I even have suggestions for the book titles: “The Chinese Conundrum” or “The Great Chinese Bubble” or “Irrational Exuberance 2”.

But, as with timing any bubble, the pop is very difficult. Bears are usually too early to call it and bulls are usually too late to see it. Just as government-published numbers of economic growth cannot be trusted, investors should look for anecdotal clues for the inflection point. Conference calls from U.S. companies doing business in China are probably the best source of information.

The risk of the Chinese bubble is real: it may be wise to prepare by immunizing portfolios from that risk. Though being completely rid of the China risk is impossible and impractical, it is very important to stress-test a portfolio against that risk, one stock at a time.
Let's stay together.mp3.http://www.cigarflavors.com/algreen.mp3

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

A "Misty mountain top" - Led Zepplin.



Be that as it may, last Friday's close (B) squeezed the sh*t out of the shorts, until it's oozing out from the ears!Even though it was only an inside day, it felt like another barn burner, didn't it? Wow! But, if the close could talks, Monday's open (C)swore a blue streak. How so? As anticipated, there was a better than average likelihood that given Thursday's large range reversal(A) or Lightening Rod (LROD, large range outside day down) that Friday was just a pause day(B), before continuation in the direction of Thursday's(A) thrust down.

The S&P was shouting and swearing for a short to be initiated on Monday morning. Why? Well, the daily swing chart turned down on Thursday's key reversal(A). When the daily swing chart turned back up on Monday morning(C) on trade above Friday's high(B), the market turned limp and rolled over. This is one of the best tools I know of for determining the trend on any time frame. If the daily trend was still powerfully up in runaway takeoff mode, the S&P would not have buckled on Monday(C) morning's turn up. If Thursday's reversal(A) from my 1576 pivot was in fact significant, a daily swing chart turn up on Monday(C) should have defined a high if a turning point was at hand. This is exactly what occurred. In fact not only did the turn up of the daily chart define a high but downside acceleration ensued! Hak!

If the trend were strongly up I suspect the S&P would not have continued to accelerate lower once the Weekly Swing Chart turned down on trade below last week's low of 1546.70.

As you know, Thursday's reversal occurred at an important level, a very important level. The 1576 high is a key six 'squares' of 360 degrees up from the bear market low of 768. Lai...!!Interestingly, rounding off the square root of that bear market low is 28 or the moon cycle of 28 days. The ancients told time by the moon or month while we use the sun.

In addition, 1576 was tagged in the vicinity of the anniversary of some important highs and lows such as the 2002 low, the 1989 low and the 1990 low. Could it be that the market has peaked on the week of the 20th anniversary of the 1987 low when counter-intuitively many, including myself, were expecting some kind of low in this time frame when selling erupted this past July?

Wouldn't it be ironic if a test failure was playing out in October just when the Street had sailed through the worst market month, September, a credit crisis, exploding oil and an imploding dollar, just when the majority on the Street were convinced that the worst was behind us, that we were out of the woods? Just askin'.

So, although it is certainly too early to say the bullet has hit the bone, two real bad-boys distribution days out of the last three sessions have occurred since the S&P hit 1576. Coincidence? Perhaps.

Unless the old levels, 1555/1556, is recaptured/reclaimed, I would be cautious about chasing the longside here as October has a nasty reputation as a cruel bad-boy and a penchant for busting parabolic piƱatas!
Misty mountain top.mp3. http://www.40calgames.com/music/Led%20Zepplin%20-%20Misty%20mountain%20Top.mp3

Saturday, October 13, 2007

Anniversaries.


Maybe W.D. Gann wasn't just whistlin' Dixie about anniversary dates in the market being important. Mid-week was one of the most important anniversaries in the stock market. Not only was it the anniversary of the October 2002 low, but it was also the anniversary of the big October 1990 low.
The geometry of both dates is cyclically important as the prior signifies a 60 month periodicity and the latter signifies the 17 year Cicada cycle which I referred to going into this year's July peak.
Importantly, that October 1990 low marked the end of the correction from the 1987 peak. Although, the DOW made a new intervening high above the 1987 high prior to a strong decline, it was a relatively short-lived and relatively marginal new high and I view the whole three year period as a corrective period. As I offer many times, the market often plays out in threes.
The 1990 low is significant as it marked the beginning of the massive bull market of the roaring nineties. Consequently, the notion that this October, 17 years from low and 5 years from low may mark a peak more significant than anyone is discussing cannot be dismissed out of hand.
After all everyone knows that the market always comes back. It has proven itself time after time. Everyone has learned the lesson. Everyone knows Ben is their friend. Everyone knows the market is out of the woods and the worst is behind us as to the credit crisis. The question is whether what everyone knows is worth knowing. Is the recent truth of the tape a crowded truth?
The important thing to remember about breakouts is that they are many times the most dangerous point of a trade: it is not the breakout in and of itself that is important, but the ensuing price action... follow through is key. The market doesn't move, it is moved! Many times the big players will buy something to bang it---drive something up to create bids in order to liquidate and distribute large positions. And, conversely sometimes the big players will bang something down in order to flush out the stops and accumulate size. This is just the nature of the beast. We're not trading against choir boys here..!
In other words, large range breakouts can define continuations and new advances or they are sometimes climactic action representing peaks. This is especially true after a sustained run. Is it possible that the "insiders" and constituents of the Fed were and are loaded for bull into next week's expiration right into the aforementioned key anniversary dates and needed to spike the market to a new high in order to more easily liquidate? Someone that big usually doesn't get that big and bang that big unless they know something. Was the fix in? It certainly felt like the market was ambushed on Thursday. The vicious reversal came like a thief in the night. The market hit a brick wall at 1576 S&P.Hey, it's not nice to fool with Mother Nature!
The large range reversals on many leading names on Thursday and the rapidity of their decline shows the market is respecting the geometry of the 1576 square out and the cycles. To recap 1576 is an important six squares up from the 768 S&P October 2002 bear market low. Six squares represents a possible major culmination of price as six cycles or squares of 360 degrees is a true square or cube. In my way of thinking, in my experience, six squares of 360 degrees represents the philosophical equivalent to squaring the circle.
Approximately thirty days from the July high the market found a low. I recognized the geometry of that potential reversal as it was setting up and expected a retracement however I incorrectly assumed that another leg down would play out into the fall. I certainly did not envision a test of the high. Approximately sixty days from the July peak, the market exploded on the Fed's slash and burn interest rate cuts. It is interesting that the 20 year anniversary of the 1987 shake up will coincide with next weeks October options expiration, ninety days from the July peak. In 1987 the high was scored on August 25th and although the intraday low was in late October, the closing low of the decline actually occurred approximately 97 days later on December 2nd.
Anyway..! It's October fest, have a jug of volatility and buckle up for the markets seasonal twist and shout. Crowd behavior, it's a livin' thing!

Thursday, October 11, 2007

GOLD, don't leave home without it !



Gold speculators are currently about as long gold futures as I have ever seen them. At first, I thought this would be bearish and would probably limit any upside in gold in the near-term. But after a little research, I found an interesting analog. See the chart above. Back in 2005 (around the end of September) gold speculators (white line) made a massive bet on gold (red line). They went net long over 200,000 gold futures contracts shortly before gold ripped from $450 to $700+. Talk about smart money!

The $450 level in 2005 was very similar to today's $750 level. I think we could see a similar run in gold once we break through $750 that takes us over $1,000 gold in the next six months.
I've got you under my skin.mp3. http://kilby.sac.on.ca/faculty/dfinlay/Jazz%20Page%20Tunes/FrankSinatra-Under%20My%20Skin.mp3

Monday, October 8, 2007

Let's party like it's nineteen-ninety-nine..!


Coco Rocco Oct 8,2007.

Midsummer nightmare on Wall Street awakens to a dream on Elm Street. As if by magic.

Credit crunch is to equities as a balloon is to deep sea diving. And like a ball plunged underwater, ever since 1987 the market seems to come back from the depths every time. Every precipice, every seizure, every coronary bounces back from the brink. Like magic.

Whether it be the Asian contagion, the Russian debt crisis, the LTCM fiasco, the technology debacle after the 2000, Internet bubble or the recent sub-primevil episode, every bust leads to a new boom. Like magic.

And it seems that the frequency and breathing room between these bouts of panicky declines is becoming shorter and shorter. Witness the bounce back from the February/March swan dive and this summer's swoon.

Do the powers-that-be want to start a new boom to prevent a bust? Does a new boom lead to an even bigger bust down the road?

Last month's jobs report seemed to lend cover to the Fed's slash-and-burn-rate posture. Now, like magic, given Friday's jobs data the economy is doing just fine thank-you-very-much after revisions of last month's numbers. One data point whispers recession, the next one causes little introspection or consternation. Like magic.

The market seemingly takes a magic carpet ride of born-again bullishness. Like magic.

It's party like it's 1999 once again with many stocks erupting as they did into the 1987 top and the top in 2000. But the question is whether it’s real or Memorex: will the S&P mimic the marginal new highs it made in July and slingshot back down? From where I sit any move back below the June highs of 1540 S&P suggests the uptrend may be in jeopardy. The important thing to remember is that when parabolic arcs break, buying pullbacks can be dangerous as experienced money managers will look to take not-so-graceful exits and cut-and-run before the end of the year if their favorite stocks break such arcs.

Sunday, October 7, 2007

The Reflation Game.

Mr. Practical Oct 3, 2007.

Chinese stocks are on fire. Take a look at some names and they are up 100% in last few days. The index relentlessly goes up. Once again, let's ask why.

The Chinese government is forcing deposit rates below inflation rates. If investors ignore risk, this forces them to speculate. They are losing value by earning interest on their“money”below inflation rates. They“rationally” take out money and buy things that act as hedges against inflation, like stocks.

This may be fine when the markets set rates since market participants allocate capital based on risk. In a market economy this would never happen.

But in a global economy in which one of the largest participants is a communist country that dictates capital flows and where central banks of other economies are becoming more socialistic as well, we can have a situation where the resulting imbalances can grow to monstrous proportions.

There are only two ends to this madness. Either markets are completely socialized where governments completely allocate capital and dictate to participants the right price for growth and risk, or the market will eventually eradicate the imbalances in a merciless way. But most likely a massive correction would be necessary for governments to complete their socialization process.

So as Chinese stocks fly just remember, it is not because the rally is rooted in better fundamentals, like companies earning more money through better production. It is the result of governments increasing imbalances.

Risk continues to grow.

Open arms.mp3. http://www.lelon.net/mp3s/Journey/GreatestHits/12%20Open%20Arms.mp3

Saturday, October 6, 2007

A history run-through for Red October.


Interestingly, the market turned up this year on September 11, which was the 55th calendar day from the July 19 high, 49 to 55 calendar days being a panic or culmination cycle.
However, despite the market's new found complacency, Goldilock may not be out of the woods quite yet. October 4 is seven squared or 49 calendar days from this year's August 16 low. Panicky waterfalls and blow-offs alike many times reverse in the window of this 49–55 day culmination count.
As Mark Twain said, “History, although it may not repeat exactly, often rhymes.” So it will be interesting to see this year if the first week of October is a test high as it was a snap back failure in 1987.
Was this year's capitulation peak in July and spike down in August a mirror image indicating a potential test of the highs in early October to be followed by a decline?
The twenty-year cycle was an integral component in the work of the late, great technician W.D. Gann. Sixty months, or five years, is an important time factor within this twenty-year cycle. For example, in 1992 the low for the year was scored in October. In 1997 the DJIA saw a thousand point drop in October. And, of course, five years later in October 2002 the market clawed out a bear market low.
Interestingly, forty years ago, or two cycles of twenty years ago, in 1967 the market also saw a Red October as the DJIA declined 10% from 943 to 849, into the first week of November. Forty years earlier, in 1927, the DJIA sank from 200 to 180 in the month of October.
The index appears poised for a continuation and an extension to new highs. This job data on Friday could certainly be a catalyst for that kind of move. However, what happens if a market is poised to rally and fails to sustain? So far, the important S&P 1540 level of the June high is holding. However, a break below 1529, the level of the July 20 signal bar sell day, would put the bullish case in serious jeopardy.

Wednesday, October 3, 2007

The hunt is on, for The Red October !


What did the market know on Monday to cause equities to explode to the upside that it didn't know on Friday?
The answer? As Jack Nickleson would say, "You want truth? You can't handle the truth.... !"
We want reasons, but the cause and effect of stock behavior is tantalizingly vague.
Truth be told that the market is always right, but sometimes doesn't know anything. What does the market know right now and when did it know it is the $64,000 question.
Insider trading may be illegal but I never heard of big money that didn't take a position because it didn't think it knew something the other guy didn't. But, after all, that's why technical analysis works at turning points: there are typically tell tale signs by the big money as it distributes and accumulates.
Call me a cynic, but methinks you don't turn the U.S. Equity-Supertanker on a dime unless the engine room is chock full of agenda. Since when could we ever figure it out? That's the problem, thinking too much. Who was at the door handing out invitations that the market was rational, the the market as supposed to make sense?
As traders all we've got are set-ups. Set-ups are just set-ups and nothing more, nothing less. An edge, not a guarantee. Speculation is observation, pure and experiential. Thinking isn't necessary and often just gets in the way. The trick is to believe what one sees.
So what did Gold see on Tuesday that shook it up, sending the metal down $20? Is the short dollar trade overcrowded? Will The ECB follow suit and lower rates this week? If all fiat paper is devalued will the dollar be graded on a curve? What did the market know about the commodity complex shakedown that it didn't know on Monday?
In my view we should have our answer this week. Friday’s economic data looms large.