Chasing The Bulls From Here.

“An optimist sees an opportunity in every calamity; a pessimist sees a calamity in every opportunity.” - Winston Churchill.

In my humble opinion, the 1,150 to 1,160 area for the S&P 500 was so crucial for any bullish stance.

If the economy was to go into a further downturn -- where the market might go and the time frame in which it would get there? The important thing to glean is that, of the last 10 recessions, the average downturn in the market was 26%, and the average time frame in which this occurred was 11 months.

From this, I previously concluded that, if the July 2007 top of 1,555 was the peak, it would drop the market to 1,150 by at least June of 2008. Well, as you all know, that didn’t happen. I guess the crystal was cracked.

Then again, on October 11th, 2007, the S&P 500 retested the peak of 1,555 and surpassed it intraday by a measly 21 points (1,576). Consequently, it marked the top by closing the day out at 1,547 in a Bearish Engulfing Key Reversal Day on what counts as high volume for all intents and purposes (1,550) - close enough.

Anyhow, by extrapolating the same numbers from the original “recession” theory, I added 11-months to the peak of October 11th and dropped the market 26% from 1,550. This puts the S&P 500 at 1,147 by September 11th, 2008. (Missed it by ONE week!)

“To miss or not to miss,” my technical scrutiny doesn’t stop there. My real conviction about the infamous 1,150 number stems from 10 years of data.

If on a closing basis the market fails at this level in the coming sessions, for whatever reason and God forbid, we'll have a clear shot below. The next level of support in the S&P 500 is 1,045. That being said, the 1,150 level should more than likely be retested over the next sessions - or days, considering the current volatility. "It ain't over, till it's over !"

As always… Stay tuned, chilled & good luck!