Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Trading The Oil Bubble.


The Shanghai Shenzen Index had a parabolic surge before and it has fallen by more than 50% since. And it is still within the context of a bear market in which all rallies should be sold.

Crude oil is still in a parabolic rise and I'm not yet trading it. Here's why. .Markets can remain irrational longer than you can be solvent. So you don't just short during a parabolic move. Sell your longs? Absolutely, because when they turn, it's usually a vicious move, particularly with a commodity.

The key is to wait for a sharp reaction down (or first leg down), an unsuccessful retest of the upside, and then short it with a stop above the old high. The chart above is an updated version of Crude Oil futures from yesterday vs The Shanghai Shenzen index.

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