How I wounder what you are...?

Clearly, the various markets are currently grappling with how events will play out in the coming year.

There are four possible outcomes:-

Scenario 1: The Fed sticks to its assertion that the risks for inflation and growth are now in balance, does not cut rates any further, and the U.S. economy grows past its credit crunch. If this happens, it would be massively bullish for the U.S. dollar, massively bearish for gold and potentially bearish for Hong Kong and Chinese equities (which are now anticipating more rate cuts). It would also be very bearish for U.S. Treasuries and government bonds around the world. Additionally, we would also most likely see a rotation within the stock markets away from commodity producers and deep cyclicals (which have been leading the market higher for years) toward the more traditional "growth” sectors, such as technology, healthcare, consumer goods, and maybe even Japanese equities.

Scenario 2: The Fed sticks to its guns, does not cut rates, and the U.S. economy really tanks under the weight of the credit crunch. In essence, the U.S. would move into a Japanese-style “deflationary bust.” In this scenario, equities around the world, commodities, and the U.S.$ would collapse, while government bonds would go through the roof.

Scenario 3: The Fed ultimately cut rates, but this fails to rejuvenate the system and get growth going again. This would likely mean stagflation. As such, gold and other commodities would do well, while stocks and the U.S.$ would struggle. Excluding bonds, this is increasingly what the market is pricing in today.

Scenario 4: The Fed ultimately cuts rates, and succeeds in reigniting the economy. This would be good news for equity markets, commodity markets, and the U.S. dollar (as world trade and foreign buying of U.S. assets would again expand, increasing the need for U.S. dollars). Of course, this scenario would be terrible news for bonds.”

The bet is on Scenario 3 and thus one has to be concerned that the Fed’s hand could be forced by the market to cut rates. Cut rates indeed, yet history shows while the first rate cut has an impact, the second and third tend to not have so much of one. This is demonstrated once again by the fact that the S&P 500 is below where it was when the Fed cut interest rates for the third time on October 31.

"Economic history is a never-ending series of episodes based on falsehoods and lies, not truths. It represents the path to big money. The object is to recognize the trend whose premise is false, ride that trend, and step off before it is discredited." - George Soros.