除去腐败

"Why are the people Angry? Because of injustice and you endlessly impose your oppressive laws,That is why they can’t take anymore."
~Lao Tzu~

I-Ching's Gua No.43 for September 16.

"本卦兑泽在上，乾天於下。夬含决心，决口，冲溃之意。卦中五阳全力挺进把上面的一阴给予突破。又阳表君子，阴表小人，五阳君子要把一阴的小人给除去。本意为万众皆有心除去腐败!"

I-Ching hexagram Gua No.43 : (Resoluteness, Breakthrough, and/or The Decisive)

An interesting article by Hawkeyejack on predicting the outcome of September 16 consulting I-Ching or the classic " Book of Change".

The “I Ching” or “Book of Change” is acclaimed to be the oldest classics in the world and is older than the Bible and widely regarded as a storehouse of wisdom and philosophy and have acted as a guide for the ancient Kings, Leaders and Scholars. This ancient classic of more than 5000 years old covers all areas from science, mathematics, and psychology and is the earliest binary system that today forms the basis of computing.

Now on consultation from the Classic of Change it generated the Hexagram no. 43 (The text of the I Ching is a set of predictions represented by a set of 64 abstract line arrangements called hexagrams).

The Question here is : “Will Anwar Ibrahim lead Pakatan Rakyat to form the new government of Malaysia by 16th September?”

The I Ching generated Hexagram no.43 (Guai) (Resoluteness, Breakthrough, and/or The Decisive) The various names in English are only attempts to append a relative title to the hexagram in accordance to its ancient text. Please remember that this is a consultation on wisdom and insight to the classic and the question will also need to be understood from a standpoint of representation, haha ok lets try to make it simple is that the dateline September 16 has a sub conscious connotation and carries with it the question of whether there is oncoming change there or thereabout.

We will attempt to go straight to the classic and interpret it as follows censoring out most of the ‘technical formula”. And the judgments will be presented here accordingly.

First the hexagram is made up of two trigram (pic above), the bottom and the top, the bottom trigram represents the Heaven and Clouds, and the top trigram represents the Swamp and Water and sum up it is the waters surging upwards. Interpreted as through the ancients symbol is that of Water surging skywards. In observing the signs the superior man will share his riches with his people and refrain from claiming all the merits.

The judgment accordingly provides you with the present scenario; The ying line (broken line) at the top symbolize the small and evil man occupying the position of the high minister lending his power to maintain a corrupt government and/or it might be a waxen old dynasty ready to vanish away. And the five undivided lines the sage saw the symbol of good order or the new dynasty inevitably to supersede the old.

The subject of the hexagram here is how bad men corrupt and yet powerful are to be put out of the way.

The sages advises that he must openly denounce the criminal in the court, seek to awaken general sympathy, and at the same time goes about his enterprise, conscious of its difficulty and danger. And he who accomplishes the task must do so by the force of his character more than by the force of arms and by producing a general sympathy on his side.

There is also a caution accordingly and that is as follows; He will eventually win, only if he is not already destroyed in the first place by his failure to take into account his varying position at the ever changing time. In the event of misjudgement of Position and Time, the more the Decisive one is, the more disastrous his defeat will be.

The classics advises that you Do not show your Anger, Do not act alone Rally people of your kind around you. Once you have built up your influence and occupy the position of the sovereign, you will win.

“The Cleansing Rain Will Come In Torrents When Enough Clouds Have Accumulated.”

There are other signs and the signs are that of the “Sovereign” the Agong and the classics shows that there is significant inclination to the change and that he will be a support in the most critical moment.

Short US Financials, Long Gold.

Given the continued collapse in the gold mining shares, I thought I'd see where we are in the gold trade.

For the third week in a row, gold has refused to take out its August 15th low, even as the euro has plunged to another new low and the US Dollar Index has made another new high.

At some point, people will begin to connect the dots that gold isn't "the euro" - and it isn't a weak dollar play, either. And that's when the gold complex is going to explode, including the gold mining shares that appear at present to be the most hated equity sector on the planet (even more than subprime mortgage lenders, apparently).

However, I should add that somebody sure seems to be buying the gold mining equities from the hedge funds that are coughing them up. The Rydex gold equity fund has seen an inflow equal to nearly 50% of its assets over the past 5 days, and I understand other gold equity mutual funds are seeing similar inflows. That's the biggest inflow in the face of falling gold mining stock prices that I can recall seeing in years.

That's not "retail buying" going into a gold fund in the face of a horrific decline in gold stocks; those are value-based strong hands buying gold stocks at a time when the XAU/Gold ratio has returned to its all-time low back in 2000, indicating that gold stocks are the cheapest they have ever been relative to gold. Additionally, this is occurring now even as the gold/oil ratio is actually rising (meaning the revenue/cost ratio is moving more and more in the favor of the miners' bottom lines).

I honestly don't know why people are selling miners this time, other than the fact that many hedge funds blew up when Paulson and the SEC pulled their stunt back in July. And liquidation has occurred in many commodity stocks ever since.

Very soon, the Treasury will be forced to nationalize Fannie and Freddie, and the Fed will be easing even more (along with foreign central banks as well). It's inevitable, and it will produce even more global inflation. Bank on it. Where the dollar goes vs. other fiat confetti is irrelevant.

The fact is that gold is rallying in all G7 confetti. And the reason gold is rallying in all currencies is because of just what Paul Volcker said : THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM HAS "BROKEN DOWN." Default or debase... those are the only 2 options, and they both lead to the same place: More inflation and higher gold prices globally.

Get Ready, For "The September Effect".

Watching water spill over the levies in the Ninth Ward in New Orleans was spooky stuff - it looked like a small wall was holding back the entire ocean. I find it miraculous there wasn’t a breach. Nice to know everyone is safe this time!

Over the years, a lot has been made of the so-called January Effect, which is supposed to be a fairly accurate indicator of how the entire year will fare based on the results of the first week of trading in a new year.

Here's an indicator that it believes to be more succinct in predicting the next 12 months. I call it the "September Effect", where the first week of action in September serves as a spot-on harbinger for the next full year of trading.

Last week traders were told to ignore the action as volume was too thin. So those 200 point Dow trading sessions were just examples of how exaggerated the market could be when everyone has gone to the beach or to watch Gustav!

Going back to 2003, if the market is up or flat in the first week of September, it's also been higher for the next year. Conversely, when the first week of last year saw stocks lower by 1.7%, the next 52 weeks were difficult and saw the market tumble 12%.

This week has the right mix of economic data for the market to make a meaningful move. It all cumulates with August jobs data, which is expected to see a net loss of jobs for the seventh time this year (every month).

The general consensus is for a loss of 60,000, which would be well under the average in typical recessions, but not great news by any stretch of the imagination beyond psychology. I would suspect the market will be in a tight trading range until Friday although the bias could be to the upside for a couple of reasons.

- Last week economic data releases were surprisingly better than expected.
- Crude oil looked vulnerable after of Hurricane Gustav and completely collapsed today.

The S&P 500 is positioned to make a major breakout with a close just north of 1,300 on convincing volume. Through that point the index has a pretty clear shot to 1,440, which to me is the big breakout point for a long term rally.

Where are you ? - In The Investor Psychology Cycle.

Are we in denial, despair - or just widespread panic?

As the pendulum swings between greed and fear, investors typically behave in 1 of 2 ways: They either become over-enthusiastic during bull markets and over-despondent as the bear’s growl grows louder.

It stands to reason that in order to be a successful investor, it's important to distance yourself from the herd mentality and to take objective decisions based on fundamental reasons.

The typical behaviour of investors is linked to the so-called investor psychology cycle (courtesy RMB Unit Trusts), as illustrated above.

Before seeking to apply the cycle to the present stock market situation, let’s consider a short definition of each of the stages.

Contempt: According to the cycle, a bull market typically starts when a market is at a low and investors scorn stocks.

Doubt and suspicion: They try to decide whether what they have left should be invested in a safe haven, such as a money market fund. They've burnt their fingers on stocks, and vow never to invest again.

Caution: The market then gradually starts showing signs of recovery. Most remain cautious, but prudent investors are already drooling at the possibility of profit.

Confidence: As stock prices rise, investors’ feeling of mistrust changes to confidence and ultimately to enthusiasm. Most investors start buying stocks at this stage.

Enthusiasm: During the enthusiasm stage, prudent investors are already starting to take profits and get out of the stock market, because they realize that the bull market is coming to an end.

Greed and conviction: Investors’ enthusiasm is followed by greed - often accompanied by numerous IPOs on the stock market.

Indifference: Investors look beyond unsustainably high price-earnings ratios.

Dismissal: As the market declines, investors show a lack or interest that quickly turns to dismissal.

Denial: They then reach the denial stage, where they regularly affirm their belief that the market definitely cannot fall any further.

Fear, panic and contempt: Concern starts to take hold; fear, panic and despair soon follow. Investors again start scorning the market. Once again, they vow never to invest in stocks again.

In order to determine where in the stock market cycle we find ourselves, the challenge is to identify the prevalent stage of the psychological cycle.

I would, for starters, argue that we are on the right-hand side of the curve - but how far down we find ourselves on that slippery slope is less clear. It would seem that we're possibly in the region of the denial/ fear/ panic phases.

Although enduring investor panic and fear haven't really set in, the January, March and July sell-offs did witness climatic -- albeit short-lived -- bouts of despair.

Time will tell whether we're dealing with a typical investor psychology cycle, and how it will play itself out. It does, however, seem that we are at not at the “contempt” stage yet, i.e. when investors scorn shares en masse and a bull market typically starts.

I do believe we are still in a primary bear market where stock markets are, at best, faced with a prolonged convalescence period characterized by sub-optimal returns. Whether significant further declines take place from these levels -- and whether valuations will overshoot to bargain levels, triggering bouts of panic and fear -- is anybody’s guess.

However, in the short term, I give the nascent stock market rallies the benefit of the doubt, provided the mid-July lows are sustained. For any rally to become more enduring, further base building will be necessary -- possibly wearing investors out to the point of contempt -- and an eventual shift in central bank policy to targeting GDP growth rather than inflation.

Gold Is The Only Hard Currency Left For Investors.

Gold’s action has been particularly interesting this week, and I believe it's very bullish as well.


For example, as the euro sank to a new low on the back of weak Ifo Institue data early Tuesday morning and the dollar index squirted up to a new high for the year, gold sank to as low as $812 in European trading.


I attribute the slide in gold that morning to selling from those who believe gold is just another way play the euro. However (much to this crowd’s surprise, I’m sure), gold never even sniffed its $775 August low, even as the euro plunged well below its own August low.


Some early morning commentary predicting gold would collapse if the euro made a new low, which was forwarded to me by a friend, gives you an idea of just how these “the euro and gold are the same” types think:


"Turning to the precious metals, we fear that far too many traders and investors are long of gold, silver et al, and find themselves in a rather awkward position. If the EUR were to trade downward through 1.4600 today, gold shall have a very, very difficult time holding above $800/oz, Indeed we are certain that if 1.4600 is 'given,' $800 will seem like a distant memory.
"

The euro indeed did punch through 1.46 to a new 6-month low early Tuesday morning. But rather than collapse “below $800,” gold began to rally and proceeded to melt up into the US open, which I’m sure was a shock to anyone who agreed with the commentary above (which no doubt put them in a “rather awkward position” if they were short).


After cutting its losses in half, the yellow metal opened down just $9 in the US and continued to melt up during the US session to as high as $836 (or up about $8), which was a $24 move from its lows during the European trading session.


Thursday, gold was breaking out of a bullish inverted H&S bottom on the charts and trying to climb back above $850 even as the dollar index remains near its high for the year.

This highlights something I have tried to explain before: Gold’s bull market isn't just a weak-dollar phenomenon. It’s a function of global inflation, just as oil and other commodities’ bull markets have been.


That’s also why many commodities and gold have been making new all-time highs in all currencies - not just in dollars.


If foreign central banks are going to be willing to sacrifice the purchasing power of their own currencies in order to prop up the dollar, that makes all the G7 confetti currencies now somewhat suspect. Is it any wonder that gold is now rallying strongly in all the G7 currencies regardless of where the “dollar index” goes?


That’s not a coincidence. Gold is a currency, and if the G7 is going to prop up the dollar, it may be the only “hard currency” that investors have left to flee to.